Analysis for 'Cisco'

  • Cisco: Live Video to Increase 15x to 13% of All Video Traffic By 2021

    Cisco has released the latest version of its Visual Networking Index, forecasting among other things, that live video will increase 15x over the next 5 years to reach 13% of all global Internet video traffic by 2021. Cisco is forecasting video will account for 82% of global Internet traffic, in line with prior forecasts and far surpassing any other application type.

    Cisco attributed the growth in live to “streaming of TV apps and personal live streaming on social networks.” Facebook Live has continued to grow in popularity, as has streaming live sports and events by various TV networks and rights-holders. As an example, the Ariana Grande benefit concert on Sunday drew more than 76 million views on Facebook Live.

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  • Cisco VNI: Video Will Account for 85% of North American Internet Traffic in 2020

    Cisco has released the 11th edition of its Visual Networking Index (VNI), forecasting that video will account for 85% of North American Internet traffic by 2020, the highest of any geographic area. Video traffic in North America will grow at a compound annual rate of 21%.

    Globally, video-related traffic will account for 82% of Internet data, up from 70% in 2015. In a briefing, Thomas Barnett, who oversees the VNI, characterized video as the “king of all content.” In fact, video dwarfs every other Internet application, with the second biggest - web/data usage - representing just 14.4% of traffic in 2020, a fraction of video’s 82%.

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  • Cisco: Video Will be 75% of Global Mobile Data Traffic by 2020

    Cisco has released its 10th annual Visual Networking Index, forecasting that video will account for 75% of global mobile data traffic by 2020, up from 55% in 2015. The U.S. is forecast to have the highest level of mobile video at 77% of mobile data traffic, a 49% annual growth rate from 2015.

    Globally, mobile data will account for 367 exabytes of data per year, an 8x increase from 44 exabytes in 2015. The growth is driven by an increase in the number of mobile users and smart mobile devices and plus faster network speeds. Cisco estimates that by 2020, 5.4 billion people, or 69% of the global population, will have mobile phones, eclipsing the 5.3 billion that have electricity and the 2.2 billion that have landlines.

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  • Cisco: Mobile Video to Soar by 13x Over Next 5 Years, to 72% of All Mobile Traffic

    Mobile video viewing will soar 13-fold over the next 5 years, to account for 72% of global mobile traffic by 2019, up from 55% in 2014, according to Cisco's new Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2014-2019. Video will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 66% over the period, the second fastest of any mobile application. Cisco forecasts that 17.4 exabytes out of the 24.3 exabytes that cross global mobile networks in 2019 will be video.

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  • Cisco VNI: Mobile Video to Grow 14-Fold by 2018, Account for Nearly 70% of All Traffic

    Cisco released its updated Visual Networking Index "VNI," forecasting that mobile video traffic will increase 14-fold from 2013 to 2018 and will have the highest growth rate of any mobile application category. By 2018, mobile video will represent 69% of global mobile data traffic, up from 53% in 2013. Mobile video will account for more than 6 times as much mobile traffic as mobile web/data (11.7%), the next highest category.

    By region, the Middle East and Africa will have the highest percentage of mobile video traffic (76%) in 2018 with the highest growth (84% CAGR). Interestingly, North American will have the second-lowest mobile video traffic percentage (67%) and the slowest growth rate (56% CAGR).

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  • VideoNuze Podcast #182 - Cisco's Global Video Forecast; BlackArrow Linear

    I'm pleased to present the 182nd edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia. Apologies in advance for audio quality this week as Colin was dialing in from a London hotel room and his audio level is low.

    In today's podcast Colin leads off by sharing key takeaways from Cisco's latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) that was released this week. Cisco has been forecasting strong online and mobile video growth for years and this version continued the trend. Colin also wrote about it here.

    Then we move on to discussing BlackArrow Linear, a new product announced yesterday that enables pay-TV operators to dynamically inserts ads into live and linear video viewed on devices. Colin and I agree that it should move the TV Everywhere ball forward, helping programmers monetize better and therefore help catalyze broader video distribution.

    Listen in to learn more!

    Click here to listen to the podcast (16 minutes, 54 seconds)

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  • VideoNuze Podcast #166 - Mobile Video in the Spotlight

    I'm pleased to present the 166th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia. This week Cisco released its VNI Mobile Data Forecast, which Colin and I both wrote about (here and here). Each of us was particularly focused on the role of mobile video, which Cisco forecasts will account for 66% of all mobile data by '17.

    Colin and I discuss the critical role of wireless carriers' tiered data plans as the big driver of what happens with mobile video adoption. To the extent that caps remain relatively low and plans quite expensive, video usage on carrier networks will be suppressed. However, users are already savvy about moving video usage to WiFi networks, typically within the home. As a result, "portable" video (as we think of it) - is soaring.

    Both of us share a number of specific data points we're seeing and hearing about which support the shift to video viewing on smartphones and tablets. Although we agree it's still a bit of a murky picture, we both believe strongly that consumer behavior is clearly shifting to watching video on smartphones and tablets. Over which types of networks they will do so going forward is an issue to be tracked closely.

    Click here to listen to the podcast (19 minutes, 49 seconds)


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  • Cisco Forecasts Mobile Data Explosion, But Will Consumers Really Pay For All That Video?

    Cisco has released its 6th annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, for 2012-2017, with heady growth predictions, including a 13x increase in mobile data traffic from .9 exabytes/mo in 2012 to 11.2 exabytes/mo in 2017. Cisco points to 4 key growth drivers over the forecast period: more mobile users (5.2B, up from 4.3B), more mobile devices/connections (10B, up from 7B), faster average mobile speeds (3.9 mbps, up from .5 mbps) and more mobile video (66% of mobile traffic, up from 55%).

    Most intriguing from my perspective is the mobile video forecast. With the proliferation of tablets and smartphones, "mobile" video has become a huge topic of interest in the industry, even though the term still means different things to different people. For example, while some loosely lump viewing video on an iPad within the home over a WiFi network as "mobile" video, I've thought of this as more "portable" video over an extended fixed network. Cisco defines mobile video as carrier-based, which I believe is more accurate.

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  • 4 New Research Studies Point to Growth in Video Viewership and Monetization

    There were 4 separate research studies released yesterday from important video technology providers, all pointing to continued change and growth in video viewership and monetization. Below I've shared key highlights from each, along with links to obtain the original research.

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  • Cisco: Video will be 91% of All IP Traffic by 2014

    Cisco released its annual Visual Networking Index forecast today, a model based on a combination of analyst projections and data collected from Cisco customers. Cisco is forecasting that global IP traffic will increase 4.3 times though 2014 and that video will be the primary driver, accounting for 91% of traffic by 2014.



    Video's dominance is based on "Hyperconnectivity" which Cisco says is driven by the growing penetration of broadband, the increasing screen space and resolution on consumer devices, the proliferation of network-enabled devices and the increase in power and speed of computing devices. Mobile devices were also included in this list, but specific traffic was denoted separately and, in line with last year's forecast is set to increase 39 times, with video accounting for 66% in the year 2014.

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  • 4 Items Worth Noting for the Nov 9th Week (Flip ads, YouTube ad-skipping, NY Times video, Nielsen data)

    Following are 4 items worth noting for the Nov 9th week:

    1. Will Cisco's new Flip Video camera ad campaign fly? - Cisco deserves credit for its new "Do You Flip" ad campaign for its Flip Video camera, a real out-of-the-box effort comprised entirely of user-generated video clips shot by ordinary folks and celebrities alike. As the campaign was described in this Online Media Daily article, finding the clips and then editing them together sounds like heavy lifting, but the results perfectly reinforce the value proposition of the camera itself. The ads are being shown on TV and the web; there's an outdoor piece to the campaign as well.

    Cisco acquired Flip for nearly $600 million earlier this year in a somewhat incongruous deal that thrust the router powerhouse into the intensely competitive consumer electronics fray. Cisco will have to spend aggressively to maintain market share as other pocket video cameras have gained steam, like the Creative Vado HD, Samsung HMX and Kodak Z series. There's also emerging competition from smartphones (led by the iPhone of course) that have built-in video recording capabilities. I've been somewhat skeptical of the Cisco-Flip deal, but with the new campaign, Cisco looks committed to making it a success.

    2. YouTube brings ad-skipping to the web - Speaking of out-of-the-box thinking, YouTube triggered a minor stir in the online video advertising space this week by announcing a trial of "skippable pre-roll" ads. On the surface, it feels unsettling that DVR-style ad-skipping - a growing and bedeviling trend on TV - is now coming to the web. Yet as YouTube explained, there's actually ample reason and some initial data to suggest that by empowering viewers, the ads that are watched could be even more valuable.

    One thing pre-roll skipping would surely do is up the stakes for producing engaging ads that immediately capture the viewer's attention. And it would also increase the urgency for solid targeting. Done right though, I think pre-roll skipping could work quite well. At a minimum I give YouTube points for trying it out. Incidentally, others in the industry are doing other interesting things improve the engagement and effectiveness of the pre-roll. I'll have more on this in the next week or two.

    3. Watching the NY Times at 30,000 feet - Flipping channels on my seat-back video screen on a JetBlue flight from Florida earlier this week, I happened on a series of highly engaging NY Times videos: a black and white interview with Oscar-winning actor Javier Bardem, then a David Pogue demo of the Yoostar Home Greenscreen Kit and then an expose of Floyd Bennett Field, the first municipal airport in New York City. It turned out that all were running on The Travel Channel.

    Good for the NY Times. Over the past couple of years I've written often about the opportunities that broadband video opens up for newspapers and magazines to leverage their brands, advertising relationships and editorial skills into the new medium. By also running their videos on planes, the NY Times is exposing many prospective online viewers to its video content, thereby broadening what the NY Times brand stands for and likely generating subsequent traffic to its web site. That's exactly what it and other print pubs should be doing to avoid the fate of the recently-shuttered Gourmet magazine, which never fully mined the web's potential. I know I'm a broken record on this, but video producers must learn that syndicating their video as widely as possible is imperative.

    4. Nielsen forecast underscores smartphones' mobile video potential - A couple of readers pointed out that in yesterday's post, "Mobile Video Continues to Gain Traction" I missed relevant Nielsen data from just the day before. Nielsen forecasts that smartphones will be carried by more than 50% of cell phone users by 2011, totaling over 150 million people. Nielsen assumes that 60% of these smartphone owners will be watching video translating to an audience size of 90 million people. Its research also shows that 47% of users of the new Motorola Droid smartphone are watching video, vs. 40% of iPhone users. Not a huge distinction, but more evidence that the Droid and other newer smartphones are likely to increase mobile video consumption still further.

    Enjoy your weekends!

     
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  • 4 Items Worth Noting for the Oct 19th Week (FCC/Net neutrality, Cisco research, Netflix earnings, Yahoo-GroupM)

    Following are 4 items worth noting from the Oct 19th week:

    1. FCC kicks off net neutrality rulemaking process among flurry of input - As expected, the FCC kicked off its net neutrality rulemaking process yesterday, with all commissioners voting to explore how to set rules regulating the Internet for the first time, though Republican appointees dissented on whether new rules were in fact needed.

    Leading up to the vote there was a flurry of input by stakeholders and Congress. Everyone agrees on the "motherhood and apple pie" goal that the Internet must remain open and free. The disagreement is over whether new rules are required to accomplish this, and if there are to be new rules what specifically should they be. As I argued here, the FCC is treading into very tricky waters, and law of unintended consequences looms. Already telco executives are talking about curtailing investments in network infrastructure, the opposite of what the FCC is trying to foster. The FCC will be seeking input from stakeholders as part of the process. Even though chairman Genachowski's bias to regulate is very clear, let's hope that as the data and facts are presented, the FCC is able to come to right decision, which is to leave the well-functioning Internet alone.

    2. New Cisco research substantiates video, social networking usage - Speaking of the well-functioning Internet, Cisco released its Visual Networking Index study this week based on research gathered from 20 leading service providers. Cisco found that the average broadband connection consumes 4.3 gigabytes of "visual networking applications" (video, social networking and collaboration) per month, or the equivalent of 20 short videos. (Note that comScore's Aug data said of the 161 million viewers in the U.S. alone, the average number of videos viewed per month was 157.) I'm not sure what the difference is other than Cisco is measuring global traffic and comScore data is at U.S. only. Regardless, the Cisco research continues to demonstrate that users are shifting to more bandwidth-intensive applications, and the Internet is scaling up to meet their demands.

    3. Netflix reports strong Q3 '09 earnings, streaming usage surges - Netflix continues to stand out as unaffected by the economy's woes, reporting its Q3 results late yesterday that included adding 510,000 net new subscribers, almost double the 261,000 from Q3 '08. The company finished the quarter with 11.1 million subs and projects to end the year with 12 to 12.3 million subs. If Netflix were a cable operator it would be the 3rd largest, just behind Time Warner Cable, which has approximately 13 million video subscribers.

    Netflix CEO Reed Hastings also disclosed that 42% of Netflix's subscribers watched a TV episode or movie using the "Watch Instantly" streaming feature during the quarter, up from 22% in Q3 '08. Hastings also said in 2010 the company will begin streaming internationally, even though it has no plans to ship DVDs outside the U.S. He added that in Q4 Netflix will announce yet another CE device on which Watch Instantly will be available (just this week it also announced a partnership with Best Buy to integrate Watch Instantly with Insignia Blu-ray players). Net, net, Watch Instantly looks like it's getting great traction for Netflix and will continue to be a bigger part of the company's mix. Yet as I've mentioned in the past, a key challenge for Netflix is making more content available for streaming.

    4. Yahoo's pact with GroupM for original branded entertainment raises more questions - Shifting gears, Yahoo and GroupM, the media buying powerhouse announced a deal this week to begin co-producing original branded entertainment for advertisers. The idea is to then distribute the video throughout Yahoo's News, Sports, Finance and Entertainment sections. GroupM has had some success in the past, as its "In the Motherhood" series, created for Sprint and Unilever, was picked up by ABC, though it was quickly canceled. As I pointed out in my recent post about Break Media, branded entertainment initiatives continue to grow.

    Less clear to me is Yahoo's approach to video. CEO Carol Bartz said last month that "video is so crucial to our users and our advertisers..." that "there's a big emphasis inside Yahoo on our video platforms" and that "a big cornerstone of our strategy is video." OK, but these comments came just months after Yahoo closed down its Maven Networks platform, which it had only acquired in Feb '08. Having spent time at Maven, I can attest that its technology would have been well-suited to supporting the engagement and interactivity requirements of these new Yahoo-GroupM branded entertainment projects. Yahoo's video strategy, such as it is, remains very confusing to me.

    Note there will be no VideoNuze email on Monday as I'll be in Denver moderating the Broadband Video Leadership Breakfast at the CTAM Summit...enjoy your weekend!

     
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  • Surging Video Consumption Drives Cisco's Mobile Traffic Forecast

    Last summer I wrote about Cisco's Visual Networking Index, a model that the company originally built to forecast traffic for its own internal planning, but which it now releases externally as well. Cisco's methodology is to combine analyst projections with data that it collects from its own customers.

    Yesterday Cisco released an updated forecast focused on mobile traffic, which is an area of intense interest for many, in light of the huge success of the iPhone and the App Store. Once again Cisco has given me permission to make available the forecast slides for complimentary download. It was a pretty long deck so I've culled out the most salient slides.

    Click here to download slides

    Cisco is forecasting mobile traffic will grow 66x from 2008-2013 to 2.5 million terabytes/mo. The primary driver of that growth is video, which it believes will account for 64% of mobile traffic in '13, more than triple data's 19% share. Cisco believes that most of the mobile video consumed will be on demand, not streamed live.

    As for devices that will fuel all this growth, Cisco believes that handsets (primarily smartphones) will account for 53% of traffic, and portable devices (primarily laptops using aircards) will account for 40%. According to its analysis, smartphones generate at least 30x the mobile traffic that standard handsets do, while laptops generate 450x the traffic of handsets. The forecast slides also break out growth by traffic type in each region of the world.

    I've said in the past that although mobile video is lagging broadband fixed line video today, it is poised to quickly catch up. All of this traffic growth of course creates both issues and opportunities for wireless carriers. Soon enough consumers are going to expect that they can take their full video experience on the road with them. It's an exciting vision.

    What do you think? Post a comment now.

     
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  • Surging Video Consumption Drives Cisco's Mobile Traffic Forecast

    Last summer I wrote about Cisco's Visual Networking Index, a model that the company originally built to forecast traffic for its own internal planning, but which it now releases externally as well. Cisco's methodology is to combine analyst projections with data that it collects from its own customers.

    Yesterday Cisco released an updated forecast focused on mobile traffic, which is an area of intense interest for many, in light of the huge success of the iPhone and the App Store. Once again Cisco has given me permission to make available the forecast slides for complimentary download. It was a pretty long deck so I've culled out the most salient slides.

    Click here to download slides

    Cisco is forecasting mobile traffic will grow 66x from 2008-2013 to 2.5 million terabytes/mo. The primary driver of that growth is video, which it believes will account for 64% of mobile traffic in '13, more than triple data's 19% share. Cisco believes that most of the mobile video consumed will be on demand, not streamed live.

    As for devices that will fuel all this growth, Cisco believes that handsets (primarily smartphones) will account for 53% of traffic, and portable devices (primarily laptops using aircards) will account for 40%. According to its analysis, smartphones generate at least 30x the mobile traffic that standard handsets do, while laptops generate 450x the traffic of handsets. The forecast slides also break out growth by traffic type in each region of the world.

    I've said in the past that although mobile video is lagging broadband fixed line video today, it is poised to quickly catch up. All of this traffic growth of course creates both issues and opportunities for wireless carriers. Soon enough consumers are going to expect that they can take their full video experience on the road with them. It's an exciting vision.

    What do you think? Post a comment now.

     
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  • Broadband Video Drives Cisco's Zettabyte Forecast

    Yesterday, in "Video Usage is Creating a Hairball for Broadband ISPs, Others," I scratched the surface of how ISPs' networks are becoming overwhelmed by the sheer volume of broadband video being consumed each day along with potential solutions currently under experiment.

    Today, to help put the problem in some context I'm pleased to offer a dozen slides excerpted from Cisco's recently released Visual Networking Forecast, which shows strong growth ahead for video, as it becomes the predominant type of Internet traffic. To learn more about the forecast and its implications, I recently spoke to Cisco's primary forecasting analyst, Arielle Sumits.

    Click here to download the slides.

    Arielle explained that Cisco started doing the forecast years ago as an internal project to help inform its own business decisions. As it recognized there was a dearth of this information available publicly, it decided to release the numbers.

    Cisco bases its calculations on analyst projections for Internet users, broadband connections, video subscribers, mobile connections and Internet application adoption. As a significant equipment vendor to service providers, it is also able to collect data from these customers to validate its forecast. In fact, Arielle said that in Q4 '08, Cisco will begin supplementing the forecast with actual data from 12-15 service providers, breaking down their users' consumption by video type (professional, UGC, etc.)

    The forecast shows that broadband video's growth will continue apace. Cisco is forecasting half a "zettabyte" (definitions are provided) of data will cross the global Internet by 2012, with broadband video accounting for nearly 50% of the total. Accounting for video's rapid expansion, global consumer Internet traffic will quadruple by 2012.

    Putting this in perspective, Cisco estimates that in 2012 global broadband video traffic will be 380 times what U.S. Internet backbone traffic was in 2000. Even in 2008, video is already impressive, with Cisco estimating that the video viewed at just 7 sites (YouTube, MySpace, Xbox Live, iTunes, NBC, ABC and Yahoo) is already greater than what U.S. Internet backbone was in 2000. (If you want to read the whole white paper Cisco wrote about the forecast, it is available here.)

    While all of this is good news for those pursuing broadband video business opportunities, the forecast again underscores the significant issues facing broadband ISPs, on whom we all rely to actually deliver video across the so-called last mile. Broadband video's growth is dependent on these companies figuring out how to economically keep up with the explosion in video consumption. As I tried to point out yesterday, there are, as yet, no perfect answers to be found.

    Click here to download the slides.

    What do you think? Post a comment.

     
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  • Akamai Analyst Day Tomorrow

    Tomorrow I'll be at Akamai's annual analyst day (disclaimer: Akamai is a VideoNuze sponsor). The morning speaker line-up includes Paul Sagan, President and CEO, Tom Leighton, Chief Scientist and Co-Founder and Mike Afergan, CTO. I attended last year and found it to be an extremely informative day, especially since Akamai is the leading CDN and has been very focused on the media and entertainment space.

    I'll be listening for information on 3 specific areas:

    • Update on pricing pressure and what this means for customers?
    • How Red Swoosh P2P integration is coming along and are any customers using it yet?
    • Any insight on service providers' (cable operators and telcos) motivation to build out their own private CDNs with gear like Cisco's CDS?

    I'll try to provide an update before hopping a plane to Dallas to speak about broadband video trends at a large broadcasters' executive offsite.

     
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