Wednesday, July 20, 2011, 5:35 PM ET|Posted by Will RichmondResearcher SNL Kagan is forecasting that 10% U.S. homes (12.1 million) will cut the cord on their pay-TV subscriptions by the end of 2015, substituting in over-the-top alternatives. At the end of 2011, 4% or 4.5 million homes will have done so. Still, Kagan sees pay-TV subscriptions actually increasing, though not at a rate fast enough to maintain current penetration levels (see yearly forecast after the break).
Kagan isn't providing any additional profile information on these cord-cutters, but as I've said before, I think the most vulnerable buckets are the "cord-nevers" (i.e. college grads and others who simply don't sign up for pay-TV service in the first place) and entertainment-only viewers who don't care about live sports that are only available on cable TV channels.
The Kagan data is sure to further fuel the debate over cord-cutting and its potential impact. Pay-TV operators have adamantly maintained that they are not seeing any real evidence of cord-cutting, yet the anecdotes seem to abound. With premium content becoming more available in more places (see today's CBS-Amazon deal), I continue to believe that choice will drive some level of fragmentation.
Categories: Cable TV Operators
Companies: SNL Kagan
See additional research »
Video Research Around the Web
- Disney Plus Will Surpass Netflix in Customers by 2026, Research Company Says Next TV
- Tubi Says Streaming Rose 58% In 2020, With Half Of Viewers Younger Than 35 Deadline
- U.S. SVOD Revenue Spiked 39% in Q3 to $5.5 Billion Next TV
- What Are Consumers Willing To Pay For Ad-Free TV Content? Mediapost
- What Streaming Wars? Five Services Control 83% of Connected TV Viewing Next TV
- PwC Study: Global Media, Entertainment Revenues To Sink 5.6% in 2020 Mediapost
- What the world watched in a day Think with Google
- U.S. Streaming Minutes Up 85% From Late March Through Early June Mediapost