Cisco released its annual Visual Networking Index forecast today, a model based on a combination of analyst projections and data collected from Cisco customers. Cisco is forecasting that global IP traffic will increase 4.3 times though 2014 and that video will be the primary driver, accounting for 91% of traffic by 2014.
Video's dominance is based on "Hyperconnectivity" which Cisco says is driven by the growing penetration of broadband, the increasing screen space and resolution on consumer devices, the proliferation of network-enabled devices and the increase in power and speed of computing devices. Mobile devices were also included in this list, but specific traffic was denoted separately and, in line with last year's forecast is set to increase 39 times, with video accounting for 66% in the year 2014.
In addition, the most interesting near-term forecast is that Internet Video will overtake P2P file sharing as the top traffic type by the end of 2010. Live video and television devices drive the increase in video traffic. Long form Internet-Video-to-PC will account for 42% of growth and Internet-video-to-TV will account for 17% growth.
Overall this shift from P2P to Internet Video and stress on long-form Internet video highlights the idea that studios' efforts to combat piracy seem to be working, by making better quality content available on easy to access sites, services, and cable on-demand.
Still, VOD traffic is growing at a rate of 33% pushed heavily by the growth of HD Video, specifically Cable HD VOD. Cisco also highlights the issues facing the industry with advanced video types like HD and especially with 3D video, which requires nearly 3 times the bandwidth.
All of this does come at a cost - offering higher quality video on demand, such as HD and added bonuses like 3D video increases bandwidth costs. Couple this with continuing monetization uncertainty and we have an issue to keep an eye on.
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